James Montier (London, UK) is the Director of Global Strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort Watterstein. Prior to this, he was director of investment strategy for Old Mutual Securities.
1. Psychological Foundations.
Biases of Judgement or Perception is Reality.
Errors of Preference or There is No Such Thing as Context-free Decision Making.
2. Imperfect Markets and Limited Arbitrage.
Efficiency and LOOP.
Positive Feedback Trading.
Risk Management and Limited Arbitrage.
On the Survival of Noise Traders.
3. Style Investing.
Potential Gains to Style Rotation.
Life Cycle of an Investment Style.
Value vs. Growth: Risk or Behavioural?
Timing the Switch.
4. Stock Valuation.
Keynes' Beauty Competition.
The (Ir)relevance of Fundamentals.
Valuation and Behavioural Biases.
Cost of Capital.
Factors from Limited Arbitrage.
An Analyst's Guide.
5. Portfolio Construction and Risk Management.
Distribution of Returns.
Fat Tails or Outliers?
6. Asset Allocation.
Markets and Fundamentals.
Dividend Yield, Spreads and Ratios.
Earnings Yield, Spreads and Ratios.
The Equity Risk Premium.
Should Corporate Financiers be Running TAA?
Crashes as Critical Points.
7. Corporate Finance.
Irrational Managers/Rational Markets.
Rational Managers/Irrational Markets.
8. The Indicators.
Asset Allocation Measures.