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Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets

توضیحات

Praise for Currency Trading And Intermarket Analysis

"Ashraf Laïdi is virtually without peer in his grasp of currency movements and their significance for financial and commodity markets and the global economy. As his new book illustrates, he's blessed with an uncommon knack for describing the meaning of trends in those often erratic markets in clear and concise fashion."
—Alan Abelson, Columnist, Barron's

"Ashraf Laïdi's book is sure to become an instant classic from Wall Street to Main Street. For the first time, a real expert has masterfully connected the rhymes and reasons behind currency, gold, oil, and other commodity price and interest rate movements in a way that is both clear and indispensable for the practitioner. In these turbulent times, the investor who wants to stay ahead of the curve and reap above average returns, the business finance student who wants to get the feel of the marketplace and enrich his or her educational experience, the international business finance professor who wants to make the class relevant, and the policymaker who wants to engineer stable and sustained growth must read this book and a number of times, from cover to cover."
—Hossein Askari, Iran Professor of International Business and Professor of International Affairs, The George Washington University

"A comprehensive guide to the factors that drive the FX market, with a particular emphasis on the major currency pairs."
—Brad Setser, Fellow, Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations

"Ashraf Laïdi's insights on the dollar have enlightened the millions who have seen him on TV or read his analysis. His book explains in simple language the complex inter-relationships between the dollar, oil, gold, and interest rates. Valuable information for all investors—even the pros."
—Susie Gharib, Anchor, PBS's Nightly Business Report

"Ashraf Laïdi is well known to city journalists as the rising star of the currency markets. His book offers a majestic sweep of the global financial system, showing how credit, oil, gold, and equity markets all interact to shift currencies one way or another. It is a primer on thirty years of exchange rate drama. If you want to know when to play the carry trade and when to steer well clear, this well-crafted opus is probably the best guide you are going to find."
—Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor

"Ashraf Laïdi has been an invaluable source of insight as global currencies have endured their fiercest bout of turbulence for years. This book offers an accessible, yet comprehensive, guide to the world's largest and perhaps least understood financial market."
—Peter Garnham, Currencies Correspondent, Financial Times


Ashraf Laïdl is the head FX Strategist at CMC Markets, where he oversees the analysis and forecasting functions of G-10 currency pairs as well as decisions and trends of the major global central banks. His online FX analysis has received wide following for more than a decade, centering on G-10 currencies and economies. Prior to joining CMC, Laïdi monitored the performance of a multi-FX portfolio at the United Nations, assessed sovereign and project investment risk for Hagler Bailly and the World Bank, and analyzed emerging market bonds at Reuters. Laïdi also created the first 24-hour currency Web site for traders and researchers during the inception of the Euro. He is the founder of AshrafLaidi.com.

Foreword.

Preface.

Acknowledgments.

Chapter 1: Gold and the Dollar.

End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff.

Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally.

Central Banks' Gold Sale Agreements.

Gold-USD Inverse Relation.

Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule.

Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards.

Gold's Secular Performance.

Valuing Currencies via Gold.

Golden Correlations.

Don't Forget Falling Gold Production.

Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets.

Equity-to-Gold Ratios.

The Role of the Speculators.

Gold is Part of a Larger Story.

Chapter 2: Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market.

From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s).

Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986).

The Super Dollar of 1980-1984: World's Third Oil Shock.

World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987).

Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991).

The Asian Crisis and OPEC's Miscalculation (1997-1998).

Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000).

Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002-Present).

Summary.

Chapter 3: When the Dollar Was King (1999-2001).

The Major Theories.

Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies.

Summary.

Chapter 4: The Dollar Bear Awakens (2002-2007).

2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market.

2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar.

2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against US Dollar.

2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge.

2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening.

2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback.

Lessons Learned.

Chapter 5: Risk Appetite in the Markets.

Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange.

Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows.

Tying It All Together: 1999-2007.

Chapter 6: Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities and Commodities.

Yield Curves and the Economy.

Types of Yield Curves.

Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications.

Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals' Implications.

Greenspan's “Conundrum” Proved Bernanke's Problem.

Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies.

Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio.

Conclusion.

Chapter 7: U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification and the U.S. Dollar.

The U.S. Twin Deficits.

U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges.

Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix.

Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?

Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows.

U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money.

Capital Flows Shift Identities.

Foreign Direct Investment and M&As.

How Long Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?

Don't Ignore U.S. Investors' Flows Abroad.

Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East.

Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable.

The View Ahead.

Chapter 8: Commodities Supercycles and Currencies.

The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles.

Dissecting Commodity Classes.

Commodities and their Currencies.

Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains.

Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil.

Copper and Gold to Shine on Long-Term Fundamentals.

Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9: Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange.

Revisiting Yield Curves.

Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?

How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?

U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar.

Bibliography.

About the Author.

Index.