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The Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil



"... and the last barrel of oil will not be worth millions, it will be worthless..."
—From Chapter Five

The Energy World Is Flat offers both professional and private investors an enlightened guide and insightful analysis to the international energy markets and addresses the profound implications of their rapid and ongoing transformation. Written by Daniel Lacalle and Diego Parrilla (investment experts in the field of global energy) this important resource contains a perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets not found in other books. The authors explore the latest developments in the world of energy and include the strategies and information needed to profit from these advances.

No matter where an investor stands on the political and philosophical issues surrounding the energy market, it is widely acknowledged that energy is the driving force of the world's economic agenda. The Energy World is Flat is a savvy investors strategic guide to the past, present, and future of these critical markets and reveals a positive investment approach.

"A tremendously valuable analysis of the energy markets that will both inform and delight the student, the seasoned industry professional, as well as the senior policy maker."
—Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy, RBC and former National Intelligence Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations

"This is a fascinating analysis of the main issues in the energy world. I would recommend it as a reference book for casual readers, energy experts, politicians as well as top managers of energy companies. This book should be very valuable as it is both thorough and easy to read"
—Juan Ramón Fernandez-Arribas, Energy Analyst and Consultant

"This book offers a consistent and thorough analysis of the complex global energy landscape, presenting the many political, economic and technological challenges of the energy sector in a clear, concise and bold way"
—Ignacio Sanchez Galan, Chairman of Iberdrola

"In his usual clear, direct and reader friendly style, Daniel Lacalle offers a precise and impartial analysis of the complex energy market. A must-read for anyone looking for a global vision of the energy world"
—Antonio Llarden, Chairman of Enagas and previously Sedigas

"A hugely interesting book in which the authors analyze the different variables in the energy world, questioning some of the established myths. The book is entertaining and informative"
—Miguel Martinez, CFO of Repsol

DANIEL LACALLE is an economist, fund manager and certified financial analyst specialised in Global Energy with experience in equities, bonds and commodities. He holds a postgraduate degree in IESE and a master-s degree in economy investigation. After working for ten years in the Oil and Gas sector, in charge of exports to the Middle East and Africa as well as Investor Relations, and in the utilities sector, Mr Lacalle joined the financial sector developing his career as a fund manager in some of the largest investment funds in the world, and was voted Top 3 Generalist and Number 1 Pan-European Buyside Individual in Oil & Gas in Thomson Reuters' Extel Survey in 2011, the leading survey among companies and financial institutions. Author of two best-selling books Nosotros los Mercados and Viaje a la Libertad Económica, now in their fifth and fourth editions respectively, as well as The Life In The Financial Markets (Wiley, 2014).

Website and Twitter @dlacalle

DIEGO PARRILLA is a Hedge Fund Manager at BlueCrest Capital Management where he runs a portfolio of liquid macro commodity strategies. Prior to starting his career in fund management in 2011, Diego worked in commodities sales and trading holding, amongst others, the positions of Managing Director, Global Head of Commodity Solutions and Head of Commodities Asia Pacific. Diego holds a Bachelors and Master of Science in Mining and Petroleum Engineering from the Polytechnic University of Madrid in Spain, a Master of Science in Mineral Economics from the Colorado School of Mines in the USA, and a Master of Science in Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, France. Diego currently resides in Singapore with his wife and three children.

Chapter 1 The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World 1

Chapter 2 Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble 11

Chapter 3 The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World 31

Chapter 4 Flattener #1 – Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin 35

Chapter 5 Flattener #2 – The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut 53

Sorry, No Peak Oil 64

No Peak Gas Either 76

Chapter 6 Flattener #3 – Horizontal Drilling and Fracking 85

Chapter 7 Flattener #4 – The Energy Broadband 103

Chapter 8 Flattener #5 – Overcapacity 117

Chapter 9 Flattener #6 – Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization 123

Chapter 10 Flattener #7 – Demand Destruction 131

Chapter 11 Flattener #8 – Demand Displacement 135

The Battle for Transportation Demand 135

The Battle for Electricity and Industrial Demand 148

The Energy Domino 151

Chapter 12 Flattener #9 – Regulation and Government Intervention 159

Regulation vs. Free Markets 160

The War on Pollution and Coal 165

Renewable Energy and the Disinflation of Power Prices 172

Biofuels and Food Inflation 193

Chapter 13 Flattener #10 – Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners 207

The Btu that Broke OPEC’s Back 209

The Oil Tax Weapon 214

Monetary Experiments and the Credit Risk Time Bomb 220

Financial Flows. Let’s Blame the Speculators 232

Chapter 14 Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets 245

Concluding Remarks 275

Appendix For A Competitive European Energy Policy 279

Index 289