LARS TVEDE has worked as a derivatives trader, portfolio manager and investment banker. He co-founded The Fantastic Corporation (www.fantastic.com), a broadband internet company, in 1996. He is also a director of European Focus (www.provalue.ch), a hedge fund. Lars Tvede lives in Zug, Switzerland with his wife and children.
Part I: The Dark Forces of Time and Ignorance.
Rational Agents and Real Worlds.
A Few Practical Terms.
Part II: The Four Terrible Truths about Finance.
The First Rule: The Market Is Ahead.
The Second Rule: The Market is Irrational.
The Third Rule: Chaos Reigns.
The Fourth Rule: Charts are Self-fulfilling.
Part III: The Psychology of Man.
The Beginning of Psychology.
The Major Schools Emerge.
Part IV: The Behaviour Of Groups.
Psychology Meets Finance.
Part V: The Psychology of Market Information.
The Fastest Game in Town.
Smoke without Fire?.
Little and Big Fish.
Frames and Attitudes.
Part VI: The Psychology of Trending Markets.
Entering the Staircase.
Harmony and Resonance.
Meet Mr Ponzi.
Differences between Bull and Bear Markets.
Part VII: The Psychology of Ranging Markets.
Doubt and Hesitation.
When Markets get Overextended.
Part VIII: The Psychology of Turning Points.
What's Really Going On when a Trend Reverses?
Warning Signals for Major Trend reversals.
Part IX: The Psychology of Panics.
Tracing the Monster's Tracks.
Part X: Beating the Gun.
Exposure and Timing.
The Road to Ruin.
Appendix I: Timeline of General Psychology.
Appendix II: Timeline of Economic Psychology.
Appendix III: Timeline of Technical Analysis.
Appendix IV: List of Historical Financial Crises.
Appendix V: Summary of Possible Psychological Phenomena During Trends, Turning Points and Panics.