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Against the Herd: 6 Contrarian Investment Strategies You Should Follow


\"Against the Herd is to investment what Freakonomics was to economics—smart, savvy, counterintuitive insights that are fun to read. Steve Cortes shows why in today's global ugly contestant beauty pageant—where the least ugly wins—America could come out on top."—David M. Smick, author of the international bestseller The World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy

"I've had the honor of knowing Steve Cortes for years, having met him during his days as a trader in Chicago. He impressed me then with his broad, 'macro' view of the global economy, a view I have always shared. His inputs have made me a better analyst and, most importantly, a better trader and investor. I cannot recommend his new book, Against the Herd, strongly enough. If he's helped me, a thirty-five-year veteran of the markets, certainly, his thoughts will help you, the reader."—Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter and a 37 year veteran of the market

"Knowing when to run pliantly with the herd, and when to stand firm against it, has always been for me a key element of a successful investment strategy. Steve's refreshing look at this topic provides six intriguing examples of where the global herd might be about to run off the cliff in a big, very expensive way. Whether you agree with him in all six cases or not, this book is a must-read for anyone looking to successfully navigate today's volatile capital markets."—Steve Auth, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Federated Investors

"Want to learn how to zig when everyone else zags? Read Against the Herd and become a better investor."—Gary Kaminsky, co-host CNBC's The Strategy Session,

STEVE CORTES appears daily on CNBC's Fast Money where he is one of several regular commentators. He also appears frequently during Fast Money's "Halftime Report." He is the founder of Veracruz, a consulting firm providing real-time market research to brokers/dealers, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds. His research covers topics ranging from global markets and equity sectors to currencies and fixed income. In addition to trading independently, Cortes provides market consulting services to a number of institutional clients.
Introduction 1

Chapter 1 The Corleones Meet Confucius 7

The Chinese Mirage of Miracle Expansion

Chapter 2 Dolls Are Meant for Children 33

Japan Stares into the Abyss of a Death Spiral

Chapter 3 Can’t Touch This 57

Resist the Allure of Gold

Chapter 4 House of Pain 81

Housing Does Not Recover Anytime Soon

Chapter 5 You Can’t Handle the Truth, or the Volatility 123

Don’t Own Stocks (or at Least Not So Many)

Chapter 6 Still the One 151

Get Long-Term Bullish on America

Conclusion 175

Notes 177

Acknowledgments 185

About the Author 187

Index 189