Always a Winner : Finding Your Competitive Advantage in an Up and Down Economy


Always A Winner

Finding Your Competitive Advantage in an Up and Down Economy

Peter Navarro

Author of The Coming China Wars

Praise for

Always A Winner

Finding Your Competitive Advantage in an Up and Down Economy

"In much the same way that Good to Great uncovered hitherto hidden secrets of highly successful companies, Navarro's Always a Winner uses extensive research to reveal the overriding importance of learning how to forecast and strategically manage the business cycle for competitive advantage. In doing so, this book provocatively explores a critical aspect of successful management virtually untapped by the existing strategy literature."
—Dan DiMiccoChairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nucor Steel

"Always a Winner is an important and timely guide to thriving in challenging economic times. Professor Navarro deftly bridges the academic and business communities, showing corporate leaders how to read economic tea leaves to anticipate business cycles. His 'Master Cyclist' credo offers many practical tips and real-world case studies for steering companies through turbulent economic seas."
—Mark Greene, PhDChief Executive Officer, FICO (Fair Isaac Corp.)

"Navarro's Always a Winner shows why forecasting the economy with a ruler can be lethal for corporate executives and money managers. He demonstrates how to skillfully anticipate the ups and downs of the economy and successfully navigate through them. The current economic crisis clearly demonstrates why this book is so important to have on your bookshelf."
—Mark ZandiChief Economist and cofounder of Moody's

"Professor Navarro's astute insight that a recession can do far more damage than any ten competitors underscores the supreme importance of recession-proofing your company in these turbulent times. Navarro not only shows you how to do just that, his 'always a winner' forecasting tools and management strategies will help you keep your bottom line up even when the economic cycle is down."
—Jim CaudillPresident, Black & Decker Hardware and Home Improvement

"Navarro's wealth of real-world examples will show you how to make both economic recessions and recoveries invaluable allies in executing competitive corporate strategies. A must-read!"
—Lakshman AchuthanManaging Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute

About the Author.


A Big-Picture View of the Always a Winner Organization.

Chapter 1 Why Recessions Are More Dangerous than Any 10 Competitors.

Chapter 2 What Good to Great and Always a Winner Organizations Have in Common.

Chapter 3 What Are the Three Steps to Becoming an Always a Winner Organization?

Chapter 4 How to Strategically Manage Through the Business Cycle Seasons.

Step I: Becoming Your Own Economic Forecaster.

Chapter 5 How (and Why) the Business Cycle Cycles.

Chapter 6 How to Forecast the Business Cycle in Four Easy Pieces.

Chapter 7 Why the GDP Equation Is Your Most Important Forecasting Tool.

Chapter 8 Why Tracking the Consumer Is the Ultimate Confidence Game.

Chapter 9 Why Taking the Pulse of Business Investment Is as Simple as ISM.

Chapter 10 How Falling Exports Can Flatten an Economy in a Flat World.

Chapter 11 Why Uncle Sam Is the Spender of Last Resort.

Chapter 12 How Do I Fear Thee, Inflation? Let Me Count the Ways.

Chapter 13 Why the Bond Market Is Not a Casino.

Chapter 14 Why Forecasting a Recession Is No Bull (Market).

Chapter 15 How the Corporate Earnings Calendar Literally “Guides” Your Strategy.

Step II: Always a Winner Strategies through the Business Cycle Seasons.

Chapter 16 How to Recession-Proof Your Supply Chain.

Chapter 17 Why Cherry Picking the Talent Pool During Recessions Is Your Quality Key.

Chapter 18 Why Countercyclical Advertising Is the Best Way to Build Brand and Market Share.

Chapter 19 Why Companies Often Price Their Products and Manage Credit Exactly Wrong.

Chapter 20 How To Not Get Run Over by the Capital Expenditures Bandwagon.

Chapter 21 Why You Should Buy Low and Sell High over the Stock Market Cycle.

Chapter 22 How to Minimize Your Capital Financing Costs over the Interest Rate Cycle.

Step III: Building the Always a Winner Organization.

Chapter 23 Why Always a Winner Organizations Always Begin with a Strong Business Cycle Management Orientation.

Chapter 24 How Every Executive Team Can Boost Its Economic and Financial Market Literacy.

Chapter 25 Why a Facilitative Structure Must Follow Your Business Cycle Management Strategy.

Chapter 26 Why a Supportive Organizational Culture Is Essential to Always Being a Winner.

Chapter 27 How to Protect Your 401(k) in an Up-and-Down Stock Market.

Concluding Thoughts.