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Fisher Investments on Consumer Discretionary


This installment of the Fisher Investments On series is a comprehensive guide to the Consumer Discretionary industry—which includes companies such as auto manufacturers, homebuilders, sports equipment manufacturers, hotel developers and operators, cruise lines, retail websites, and department stores, to name just a few.

This reliable guide can help you in making top-down investment decisions specifically for the Consumer Discretionary sector. It shows how to determine better times to invest in Consumer Discretionary, which Consumer Discretionary industries and sub-industries are likelier to do best, and how individual stocks can benefit in various environments. The global Consumer Discretionary sector is complex, covering many sub-industries and countries with unique characteristics. Using the framework detailed in this book, you can learn to be better equipped to identify their differences, spot opportunities, and avoid major pitfalls.

Given the vast market landscape and diverse geographic operations, it is vital to maintain a global perspective when investing in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This invaluable resource provides the tools that can help you understand and analyze opportunities both in the United States and abroad within this diverse sector.

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About Fisher Investments Press

Fisher Investments Press brings the research, analysis, and market intelligence of Fisher Investments' research team, headed by CEO and New York Times bestselling author Ken Fisher, to all investors. The Press covers a range of investing and market-related topics for a wide audience—from novices to enthusiasts to professionals.

Erik Renaud is a Consumer Discretionary Research Analyst at Fisher Investments. Renaud graduated from Santa Clara University with a bachelor's degree in finance. Hailing from Minnetonka, Minnesota, he currently resides in San Francisco, California.

Andrew S. Teufel has been with Fisher Investments since 1995, where he currently serves as a Co-President and the Director of Research. Prior to joining Fisher Investments, he worked at Bear Stearns as a corporate finance analyst in its Global Technology Group. Teufel also instructs at many seminars and educational workshops throughout the United States and United Kingdom, and has lectured at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. He is also the Editor in Chief of Teufel is a graduate of UC Berkeley.




Part I Getting Started in Consumer Discretionary.

Chapter 1 Consumer Discretionary Basics.

Consumer Discretionary 101.

Getting to Know the Consumer Discretionary Sector.

Chapter 2 The History of the Consumer Discretionary Sector.

The Earliest American Consumers.

The Birth of the Modern Consumer Discretionary Sector.

Chapter 3 Consumer Discretionary Sector Drivers.

Economic Drivers.

Political Drivers.

Sentiment Drivers.

Part II Next Steps: Consumer Discretionary Details.

Chapter 4 Consumer Discretionary Sector Landscape.

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Global Consumer Discretionary Benchmarks.

Automobiles & Components Industry Group.

Retailing Industry Group.

Media Industry Group.

Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group.

Consumer Services Industry Group.

Chapter 5 Challenges in the Consumer Discretionary Sector.

Challenge 1: Growing Profits in Mature Markets.

Challenge 2: Managing Volatile Demand.

Case Study: Callaway Golf.

Chapter 6 Household Debt—Myths and Opportunities.

Household Debt in Developed Markets—Basically a Very Useful Tool.

Tremendous Opportunities in Emerging Markets.

Case Study: Brazil’s Credit-Driven Consumption Boom.

Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager.

Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method.

Investing Is a Science.

Einstein's Brain and the Stock Market.

The Top-Down Method.

Top Down Deconstructed.

Managing Against a Consumer Discretionary Benchmark.

Chapter 8 Security Analysis.

Make Your Selection.

A Five-Step Process.

Important Questions to Ask.

Chapter 9 Consumer Discretionary Investment Strategies.

Strategy 1: Adding Value at the Industry and Sub-Industry Level.

Strategy 2: Adding Value at the Security Level.

Strategy 3: Adding Value in a Consumer Discretionary Sector Downturn.

How to Implement Your Strategy.


About the Authors.