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Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets



"Ed has the experience, he has the knowledge, and he has the ability to wrap it all up into one of the most useful and insightful books on trading that I've read. You're going to be a better trader with the help of this book."
—Rob Booker, independent currency trader, and author of Adventures of a Currency Trader

"This book is a must-read for any equities trader who is trying to learn the ins and outs of the forex markets. Ed has the rare gift among traders and educators to take complex trading theories and break them down into interesting and easy-to-digest trading concepts. I have personally had the benefit of studying live with Ed, and I found this book a great review of my live courses with him and now use it as my main forex reference book in my trading library. Ed you truly are the rock star of the FX markets. Well done!"
—Michael J. Di Gioia, cofounder, the Results-Driven Financial Network

"Forex Patterns and Probabilities is one of the best practical forex trading books I have read, and I have read a good many forex books! Ed thoroughly teaches those areas that cause most difficulty for new traders, from economic fundamentals to technical trading to the psychological aspects that are so important but ignored by so many new to trading. Peppered throughout with anecdotes from the trading and non-trading world, Ed's easygoing, homespun style gets his message across very effectively. This work is destined to become essential reading for both new and established traders."
—George Hallmey, Director,

"Ed Ponsi is a complete teacher! Forex Patterns and Probabilities covers it all for forex and trading in general. This book will teach you the foundations, the tactics, the pitfalls, and the 'real' world of forex. As Director of Education for the Online Trading Academy, I understand the importance of education and trading knowledge. . . Forex Patterns and Probabilities, while focused on forex, allows the reader to see the nuances of trading in general—fundamental, technical, psychological, plan management, and a strong, healthy dose of risk management and discipline."
—Mike McMahon, Director of Education, Online Trading Academy

Ed Ponsi is the President of and is the former chief trading instructor for Forex Capital Markets. He is an experienced professional trader and money manager who has advised hedge funds, institutional traders, and individuals of all levels of skill and experience. Ponsi is featured on the DVD series, Forex Trading with Ed Ponsi. He is a dynamic public speaker who has appeared on numerous television and radio programs, and is a frequent guest lecturer at trading conventions and seminars around the world.


About the Author.


Chapter 1. Getting Started In Forex.

From Stocks to Forex.

Getting to Wall Street.

Welcome to the Jungle.

Football and Forex.

Stock Market Headaches.

Welcome to Forex.

A New Beginning.

Chapter 2. All About Forex .

The Canadian Dollar and the U.S. Dollar.

The Euro and the U.S. Dollar.

Trading Terminology.

An Easy Way to Understand the Exchange Rate.

Chapter 3. Questions and Answers.

Why Does the Big Money Trade Forex?

Why is Forex Suddenly So Popular?

How Do Traders Make Money in the Forex Market?

Why Do Currencies Trade in Pairs?

How Can I Trade Two Currencies at One Time?

How is 24-Hour-Per-Day Trading Possible?

How is the Trading Day Structured?

Greenwich Mean Time.

Chapter 4. Technical Analysis and the Forex Market.

The Theory behind Technical Analysis.

Statistical Survey.

Fear of the Unknown.

Trading Patterns and Technical Indicators.

The Psychology behind the Market.

Moving Beyond Technical Analysis.


Proper Order.

Fibonacci Techniques.

Chapter 5. Things You Need to Know Before Trading Forex.

The “Triple Threat” Trader.

Gaining Experience.

Which Pair to Trade?

Commodity Currencies.

Don’t Limit Yourself.

Trading and Karma.



Chapter 6. Understanding Trends and Tendencies.

Trading Conditions.

The Importance of Maintaining Objectivity.

Begin with a Tendency.

Putting the Trend to Work.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.

Take Me to the River.

How to Determine If the Market is Trending.

Chapter 7. The Anatomy of a Trend.

Why Trends Form.

Don’t Fight the Trend.

Chapter 8. Forex Multiple Time Frame Strategy.

Why Does It Work?

Combining Fibonacci and Trend.

Overbought Does Not Equal “Sell”.

Picking Tops and Bottoms.

The Entry Signal.

Placing the Stop.

Getting Out.

Welcome to the Real World.

Tweaking the Exits.

Executing the Plan.

Second Guessing.

Bringing It Home.

The Devil’s Advocate.

When to Stay Out.

Reloading the Trade.

Fantasy vs. Reality.

Phantom Signal.

Temporary Success and Failure.

The Stop Run.

Chapter 9. The FX-Ed Trend Technique.

Trends Are Self-Sustaining.

Difference of Opinion.

Big Money at Work.

The Common Denominator.

Long or Short.

Identifying the Trend.

Filtering the Trend.

The Catalyst.

Placing the Stop.

Volatility Stop.

Comparing Apples to Apples.

ATR Calculation.

The Entry.

The Stop.

The Trade.

Don’t Fish For Minnows.

Back To the Trade.


The News vs. the Trend.

Appearances Can Be Deceiving.

More Than One Chance.

Partial Exit Exercise.

Discretionary and Strategic Exits.

Faulty Wiring.

Partial Exit Technique.


Important Points to Consider.

Final Thoughts.


Chapter 10. The Ultimate Indicator.

The Price is the Key.

Why Support Becomes Resistance.

The Pleasure Principle and Trading.

Price Action.

Don’t Stand in Front of a Freight Train.

Chapter 11. Keys to Intraday Breakouts.

Ascending and Descending Triangles.

Trend Filter.

Time of Day Filter.


Chapter 12. Flags and Pennants.



Filtering Entries.


Chapter 13. The Squeeze Play.

The Cycle of Volatility.

Perception Moves the Market.

Volatility Breakout Strategy.

Chapter 14. The Round Trip.

Why Round Numbers Capture Our Attention.

Why Round Numbers Are Effective.

Round Numbers and Forex.

The First Bounce Is the Best Bounce.

Using the Moving Average.

The Strategy in Action.

Chapter 15. The Interest Rate Edge.

Think Like the Big Boys.

Interest Rate Differentials.

Here’s How It Works.

Changing Differentials.

What’s the Big Deal?

Collecting Interest.

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen.

Long-Term Play.

Looking Ahead.

Chapter 16. The Boomerang.

Fading False Breakouts.

The Strategy.

Setting the Parameters.

Entering the Trade.

Simple but Effective.


Chapter 17. How to Achieve Spectacular Gains.

Keep Your Eyes on the Road.

Proper Goal Setting.

Breaking Down Your Goals.

Consistency Is the Key.

What Happens When I Reach My Goal?

Chapter 18. The Forex Playing Field.

Evening the Odds.

The House Has the Edge.

Make the Playing Field Bigger.

But the Other Trading Instructor Said….

Let’s Do the Math.

Changing the Equation.

Why Doesn’t Everyone Do It?

Huge Gains with Minimal Effort!.

What We Can Learn From the “Smart Money”.

Now Get Out There and Win.

Chapter 19. Trading Lessons from Life.

Panic at the Beach.

The Endless Tournament.

In Summary.

Chapter 20. What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You.

Sarcasm Alert!.

Know When to Retreat.

The “95% Winners Strategy”.

Beware the Back Tester.

Hypothetically Speaking.

Chapter 21. A Tale of Two Traders.

Individuals vs. Institutions.

The Difference between Amateurs and Professionals.

Chapter 22. Some Final Thoughts.

Good Trades Are Not the Same Thing as Winning Trades.

Proper Execution is Critical.

Take Responsibility for Your Actions.

Keep It Simple.

Physical vs. Mental.

In Closing.