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Investing with the Trend: A Rules-based Approach to Money Management


Praise for Investing with the Trend

"If you want to take a master class in financial markets, this is the book for you."
--Mebane Faber, CIO, Cambria Funds

"Greg Morris is a learned scholar, sharp observer, rational thinker, and successful stock market analyst and investor. All these characteristics are displayed in his new book Investing with the Trend. It is a gem. His understanding and refutation of many Wall Street myths are brilliant; his evaluation of stock market indicators is well-reasoned; and his investment style and risk avoidance methods superb. Anyone, professional or otherwise, interested in a reasoned, fact-supported, comprehensive book on the stock market should own it."
--Charles D. Kirkpatrick, CMT, Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc.

"Anyone wanting to read about technical analysis should read this book first. It is the benchmark book that all other books on the topic should be compared to."
--Peter Mauthe, Investment Banking

"If you invest in stocks without first investing in this book, you are a fool. Well written, documented, and practical, Greg's work is an amazing accomplishment, combining knowledge with wisdom. In my library of thousands of market books, there are only a few 'must reads'. This one has earned that honor."
--Larry Williams, Trader

"The trend is your friend, so make friends with Investing with the Trend. Whether you are emotional or disciplined, a numbers nerd or not, Greg will show you how successful investors let the rules rule."
--Sam Stovall, Chief Equity Strategist, S&P Capital IQ

Gregory L. Morris is Chairman of the Investment Committee for Stadion Money Management, LLC, which manages approximately $5.4 billion, and their Chief Technical Analyst. Prior to this role, Morris served as a trustee and advisor to the MurphyMorris ETF Fund and as treasurer and chief executive officer of MurphyMorris Money Management Co. and He has been a technical market analyst for over forty years, ranging from analysis software development and website analysis and education to money management. Morris is the author of two books, Candlestick Charting Explained and The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators. He has appeared frequently on financial news shows, has lectured on technical analysis worldwide, and has been featured in major magazines. Morris was a U.S. Navy fighter pilot, is a graduate of the Navy Fighter Weapons "Top Gun" School, and holds a degree in aerospace engineering from the University of Texas.

Foreword ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Chapter 1
Introduction 1

Part I: Market Fiction, Flaws, and Facts 13

Chapter 2
Fictions Told to Investors 15

Chapter 3
Flaws in Modern Financial Theory 27

Chapter 4
Misuse of Statistics and Other Controversial Practices 51

Chapter 5
The Illusion of Forecasting 57

Chapter 6
The Enemy in the Mirror 71

Chapter 7
Market Facts: Bull and Bear Markets 83

Chapter 8
Market Facts: Valuations, Returns, and Distributions 113

Part II: Market Research 139

Chapter 9
Why Technical Analysis? 141

Chapter 10
Market Trend Analysis 159

Chapter 11
Drawdown Analysis 231

Part III: Rules-Based Money Management 267

Chapter 12
Popular Indicators and Their Uses 269

Chapter 13
Measuring the Market 281

Chapter 14
Security Ranking, Selection, Rules, and Guidelines 319

Chapter 15
Putting It All Together: The “Dancing with the Trend” Model 355

Chapter 16
Putting Trend-Following to Work 391

Chapter 17

Conclusions 399

Appendix A: Passive versus Active Management 409

Appendix B: Trend Analysis Tables 413

Appendix C: Market Breadth 445

Appendix D: Recommended Reading 457

Bibliography 459

About the Author 467

About the Online Resources 469

Index 471