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Investment Timing and the Business Cycle


A concise, authoritative guide on using the business cycle to improve investment timing and maximize returns.

"The business cycle--which articulates the evolution of the economy through time--provides the fundamental backdrop for investment returns. . . . Various classes of assets perform very differently under different economic conditions, and to exploit the opportunities presented by these disparate conditions, the investor must understand the dynamics of the economy and how changes in the economy impact different categories of investments. This primer offers a framework for assessing and understanding the business cycle and its impact on different types of financial assets." --from the Introduction.

Successful market timing depends on understanding the impact of the business cycle on different types of assets at different stages of the cycle. Surprisingly, there is little practical information currently available on business cycle-based timing. In this authoritative new book, an expert on investment timing gives you the framework for understanding both how the business cycle works and how it affects market timing. Ten concise, sharply focused chapters provide the tools you need for making the right investment decisions -- at the right time.

Investment Timing and the Business Cycle definitively sets out the cycle of economic forces that affect asset class returns, and describes the nature, power, and interaction of these forces on the full range of investment vehicles. Investment expert Jon Gregory Taylor explains the different phases of the business and growth cycles, and the effect each phase has on investment returns in equities, bonds, and cash. He examines key U.S. economic indicators and gives suggestions for interpreting them in light of the business/growth cycle and the financial markets.

Taylor's insights into the effects of the business/growth cycle on the stock market cover such crucial issues as negative and positive output gaps, corporate earnings and profits, inventories, monetary policy, and interest rates. His detailed analysis of sector rotation will help you take advantage of changes in the relative performance of specific market sectors over time.

Taylor describes how global equity markets, each with their own cycle and seasonality, influence each other and in the process, present yet another level of risk and opportunity for investors. In a thorough examination of the bond market, Taylor emphasizes the dynamics of the business cycle as it relates to monetary policy and short-term interest rates.

Supported by an abundance of helpful charts, tables, and references, Investment Timing and the Business Cycle will give investment pro-fessionals at all levels a deeper understanding of the cyclical forces that shape the invest-ment environment, as well as a sounder, more informed basis for expertly timed investment decisions.

JON GREGORY TAYLOR is the Chief Investment Officer at Commonwealth Funds Management (CFM), an international investment firm based in Melbourne, Australia. He has held principal positions at First Chicago Investment Advisors, Brinson Partners, Continental Bank, and Manufacturers Hanover. In addition, he has served as an international economist in the offices of the U.S. Treasury Department.
Financial Markets and the Business Cycle.

Business and Growth Cycles.

Monitoring the Business Cycle.

Key U.S.

Economic Indicators and their Interpretation.

The Stock Market and the Business Cycle.

Sector Rotation within the Stock Market.

Global Equity Markets.

Seasonality in Global Equity Markets.

The Bond Market and the Business Cycle.

Global Bond Markets.