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New Frontiers in Technical Analysis: Effective Tools and Strategies for Trading and Investing


Praise for New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

"This is a groundbreaking book that discloses many trade secrets previously known only to a select few market data managers. By drawing upon vast amounts of historic Bloomberg system data, Paul Ciana shows exactly which technical analysis techniques are most popular globally, who uses them, and when. Having looked back, Paul then goes on to highlight several very new techniques and their application to today's markets. An excellent contribution to the world of technical analysis literature and a must-read for all serious technicians."
Adam Sorab, President, International Federation of Technical Analysts; Head of Technical Research, CQS (UK) LLP

"The optimum word in technical analysis is 'change,' and that is exactly what this book addresses: the important new changes taking place in the subject today and the myriad of ways that technical analysis identifies critical changes in and between markets. Paul introduces us to new ways of visualizing changes in relative activity: changes in seasonal cycles, changing rules and much more. Enjoy New Frontiers, it will enable you to set up your own disciplines and to embrace change."
Ralph Acampora, CMT, Chief Technical Analyst, Alverita LLC

"Paul has opened the door for a new type of book involving technical analysis. In the past, there have been great books written that interviewed technical traders and investors. Paul has introduced a book that allows successful technical analysts to share their personal strategies and innovative techniques. Each section is an in-depth look at their favorite technical work. The section by my friend Julius de Kempenaer is worth the cost of the book alone. Nice work, Paul."
Gregory L. Morris, Chief Technical Analyst and Chairman of the Investment Committee, Stadion Money Management; author of Candlestick Charting Explained and The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators

"After reading New Frontiers in Technical Analysis, the aspiring technician will feel as if they just had golf lessons from six recent winners of the Masters."
Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, Standard & Poor's Equity Research

"New Frontiers in Technical Analysis is an enlightening book for experienced technicians, and yet still accessible for those who are new to the art. Mr. Ciana has collected the thoughts of five great minds, who present their indicators in a compelling format. Many of the indicators are derivations of the old familiars, such as the MACD and the stochastics, whereas others are nothing short of ground-breaking. From Julius de Kempenaer's Relative Rotation Graphs to Cynthia Kase's Equal True Range Bar Charts, there is something for everyone. A new regime of technicians has clearly arrived, and this book serves as their showcase. In addition, Mr. Ciana gives us a rare look into the worldwide usage of various indicators through his unique position at Bloomberg LP."
Katie Stockton, CMT, Managing Director and Chief Market Technician, MKM Partners

PAUL CIANA is an Application Specialist at Bloomberg LP where he consults with market participants on developing technical strategies, directs a week long class on technical analysis and proposes the development of new technical tools on Bloomberg. He is the author of the Bloomberg Global Technical Strategy report and contributes quarterly to Bloomberg Markets magazine. He has guest presented at the Traders Expo, Market Technicians Association Annual Symposium, International Federation of Technical Analysts Annual Conference, CFA Institute, MBA programs, and many Bloomberg events. He is the New York Chapter Chair of the Market Technicians Association and is an instructor in the CMT Institute. He graduated from the University at Albany with honors, majoring in finance and management, and minoring in economics.
Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

CHAPTER 1: Evidence of the Most Popular Technical Indicators 1
Paul Ciana, CMT

Defining Technical Analysis 2

Defining Chart Types 5

Evidence of Chart Type Popularity 10

Evidence of Technical Indicator Popularity 14

Applying the Most Popular Technical Indicators 18

Conclusion 45

CHAPTER 2: Everything Is Relative Strength Is Everything 49
Julius de Kempenaer

"This Time It's Different" 50

What Is Comparative Relative Strength? 51

The JdK RS-Ratio and JdK RS-Momentum 65

Relative Rotation Graphs 75

Conclusion 83

CHAPTER 3: Applying Seasonality and Erlanger Studies 85
Philip B. Erlanger, CMT

Testing for a Valid Seasonal Cycle 86

Applying Cycles as a Strategy 94

Monitoring Seasonal Data 101

Erlanger Studies: The Art of the Squeeze Play 108

CHAPTER 4: Kase StatWareTM and Studies: Adding Precision to Trading and Investing 155
Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTA

Introduction to KaseSwing 157

Kase DevStops 169

Kase Momentum Divergence Algorithm 177

Kase PeakOscillator and KaseCD 188

Why Use KasePO and KaseCD? 189

Kase Permission Stochastic and Screen 199

Entering Trades and the Kase Easy Entry System 201

About the Kase Easy Entry System 206

Trading with Kase StatWare 209

Kase Bar Chart (Equal TrueRange Bar Chart) 211

Summary 215

CHAPTER 5: Rules-Based Trading andMarket Analysis Using Simplified Market Profile 217
Andrew Kezeli

Technical Analysis Is Simple in Theory—Difficult in Practice 218

Rules-Based Trading: Automated Strategy Trading versus Discretionary Trading 221

Balance versus Imbalance: Distinguishing the Two Phases of Market Activity 222

There Are Only Three Market Segments: Nontrending, Uptrending, and Downtrending 224

Four Market Participants—and Then a Fifth . . . 228

Market Profile 231

Market Movement: The Four Steps of Market Activity 234

Market Structure 236

The Relative Speed of the Market's Building-Block Components 239

Vertical Nondevelopment ("Minus Development") 240

Simplifying Market Profile 245


Rules-Based Trading and Analysis with TAS PRO Navigator 255

TAS PRO Indicator Application Examples 257

Conclusion 280

CHAPTER 6: Advanced TradingMethods 283
Rick Knox

From the CBOT to the Charts 283

Trading by Gut Feeling 287

Understanding the Background of an Opportunity 288

They Say Entry Is Easy, but Not in My Book 295

Trade When the Odds Are in Your Favor 299

Don't Fight the Trend 300

Trade Location Is Key to Long-term Success 301

Adjusting to Volatility 302

Anticipating What Needs to Happen 303

Using Time as Part of Your Risk Management 304

Learning to Control Your Emotions 306

The Hardest Part of Any Strategy Is the Exit 306

Putting It All Together: Two Examples 307

Picking Up the Right Tools 310

Recommended Reading 313

About the Authors 315

Index 319