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The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing


The leverage and profit potential associated with options makes them very attractive. But you must be prepared to take the financial risks associated with options in order to reap the rewards.

The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing will introduce you to the most important concepts in options trading and provide you with a working knowledge of various options strategies that are appropriate for any given situation. Whether you're a new trader or "returnee" to the options market, this book will not just teach you about options, it will teach you how to successfully trade them.

This comprehensive trading guide includes:

  • An overview of the most valuable uses for options
  • An introduction to basic option terminology
  • An explanation of the most useful trading strategies available, including risk curves, and the conditions to look for when determining which strategies to employ
  • Guidelines for exiting a trade at a loss and exiting a trade at a profit
  • And much more

In clear, easy-to-follow terms, The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing arms you with the facts you need to understand options as well as choose and use profitable options trading strategies. From time decay, market timing, and volatility to naked options, covered calls, and butterfly spreads, this comprehensive guide will help you trade options intelligently and confidently.

JAY KAEPPEL is Director of Research at Essex Trading Company, Ltd., a leading developer of trading software for options and futures traders. He is also an active CTA (commodity trading advisor). With over twenty years' experience, Jay's expertise as a system developer has been noted by Technical Analysis of Stock & Commodities magazine and Formula Research, a renowned trading system advisory newsletter. His articles and interviews have appeared in leading industry publications, and his previous books include The Four Biggest Mistakes in Options Trading and The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading.

The Basics of Options.

Reasons to Trade Options.

Option Pricing.

Time Decay.



Market Timing.

Trading Realities.

Important Concepts to Remember.

Overview of Trading Strategy Guides.

Buy a Naked Option.

Buy a Backspread.

Buy a Calendar Spread.

Buy a Straddle.

Sell a Vertical Spread.

Sell a Naked Put.

Write a Covered Call.

Enter a Butterfly Spread.

Placing Trades.

Epilogue: Some Random Thoughts for Option Traders.

Appendix A: PROVEST Option Trading Method Criteria.

Appendix B: Option Exchanges, Option Brokers, Option Symbols, and Option Volume.