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The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators, 3rd Edition


Praise for The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators, Third Edition

"Rich's Trader's Guide identifies the essential economic indicators needed to completely understand the economy's underlying fundamentals. This book bridges the gap between what is taught in college texts and read in the business press. Rich has one of the smartest economic minds and is genuinely one of the nicest guys in the world. Really. He told me to write that."
--Arthur B. Laffer, former advisor to President Reagan and coauthor of Return to Prosperity: How America Can Regain Its Economic Superpower Status

"Rich Yamarone is a walking human database of trading data. He looks at everything but, more importantly, he knows what is important and what isn't. And he looks in places most economists never think about. The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators is a resource you want to read again and again and then keep near your desk to refer to. It's that good!"
--John Mauldin, President, Millenium Wave Securities

"Thinking before speaking is always good advice. For traders, understanding economic indicators before executing the trade is essential, and Richard's work sets understanding in its primary place. Richard covers many varied indicators and reflects upon their quirks as well as their signals for traders. This is a must-read for intelligent traders."
--John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo

"Markets respond instantaneously to economic news. Making quick decisions requires a solid understanding of the past performance of, and the methodologies used to produce, economic indicator statistics. Yamarone's latest gets 'into the weeds' and provides the understanding needed to properly interpret the implications for financial markets of changes in economic indicators. An easy and profitable read."
--William Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, National Federation of Independent Business; Economic Strategist, Boenning & Scattergood

RICHARD YAMARONE is a Bloomberg Senior Economist with more than two decades of experience on monetary and fiscal policy, economic indicators, fixed income, commodities, and general macroeconomic conditions. He authors and oversees the Bloomberg BRIEF: Economics, a daily newsletter that features analysis, data, and news on the forces shaping the global economy. Yamarone is also the creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from comments that CEOs and CFOs made on quarterly earnings conference calls. He is a member of the National Association for Business Economists, the American Economic Association, the New York State Economics Association, and the Money Marketeers of New York University. Yamarone has won numerous accolades for his work, including being featured as one of the top ten economists in the U.S. by USA Today in 2007 and was named "Nostradamus of the Financial Industry" by Bank Advisor in 2008 for his prediction of the financial crises.

Acknowledgments ix

Introduction 1

CHAPTER 1 Gross Domestic Product 11

CHAPTER 2 Indexes of Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators 47

CHAPTER 3 The Employment Situation 65

CHAPTER 4 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 83

CHAPTER 5 Institute for Supply Management Indexes 101

CHAPTER 6 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 123

CHAPTER 7 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales 139

CHAPTER 8 New Residential Construction 151

CHAPTER 9 Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indexes 167

CHAPTER 10 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services 183

CHAPTER 11 Personal Income and Outlays 199

CHAPTER 12 Consumer and Producer Price Indexes 219

CHAPTER 13 The Fixed-Income Market 235

CHAPTER 14 Commodities 259

About the Author 285

Index 287