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Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence


This textbook provides a comprehensive and up to date review of the rapidly expanding business cycle literature. It covers three key strands of the theory which have dominated recent literature in the subject: equilibrium (monetary and real) business cycles, nonlinear business cycle models and political business cycle theories.

After surveying the various approaches to business cycle modelling and studying the recent evidence it becomes clear that far more testing of these key business cycle hypotheses has been undertaken using US macroeconomic time series than the equivalent UK series. In an attempt to redress the balance the authors present new results for UK macroeconomic time series and compare and contrast them with previous results from the UK and those derived in the US. In conclusion, the authors consider the implications for policy of the various theories and the empirical results, and make suggestions for future research.

Business Cycles is designed for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students of macroeconomics and monetary theory and policy and academic economists wishing to keep abreast of the substantial recent developments in this field.

Andy Mullineux is Senior Lecturer in Money, Banking and Finance. David G. Dickenson is Senior Lecturer in Economics and WenSheng Peng is a Research Fellow. All belong to the department of Economic sst the University of Birmingham.
1. Introduction.

2. Equilibrium Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence.

3. Nonlinear Business Cycle Modelling.

4. Political Business Cycles, Credibility and Reputation.

5. Empirical Evidence Relating to Business Cycles in the US and the UK: New Results in Context.

6. Evaluation and Conclusions.