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The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis



"Dr. Kent Moors has done it again—smashed the long–held truths about oil pricing and revealed the number–one factor that will either save or destroy our economy and way of life. The crisis is upon us. That's exactly why it's more important than ever to read The Vega Factor. Every page, every idea is a gem." —Mike Ward, Publisher, Money Map Press

"The Vega Factor highlights the serious flaws in global energy markets that threaten the world with its next shockwave. Let's hope energy practitioners and policymakers read it and come up with a solution before it's too late." —Ian Walker, Executive Director, Windsor Energy Group, London

"This is the book Kent Moors was born to write. A lifetime of academic and real–life experience has given him a genuine insight into the energy world that few can master. Moors gives the reader a dose of reality with the facts and research to support his theory of oil vega. Be prepared to change your view of the way the future will unfold as Moors gives us the benefit of decades of research and hands–on experience. It is a glimpse behind the curtain of how the real world of 'energy politics' works in the twenty-first century."—Ron Klink, Senior Policy Advisor, Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP

"Moors does a precise and thorough job of dissecting an often less contemplated piece of the rapidly evolving energy landscape. Enlightening for policymakers, analysts, and novices alike."—Sean Levine, Senior Research Director–Policy, DeMatteo Monness LLC

The true causes of runaway volatility in the price of oil and its dire economic and geopolitical implications

Oil is the lubricant that keeps the modern world spinning on its axis. From the food we eat and the clothes we wear, to our means of transportation, and even the medications that keep us alive, every facet of our lives is dependent upon a steady supply of affordable crude. In The Vega Factor, oil industry expert and political scientist Kent Moors reveals how a deep structural flaw at the heart of the global financial system currently threatens to end the flow of affordable oil. He describes the grave economic and geopolitical implications of out-of-control price volatility in the oil markets—what he refers to as oil vega—and he offers his prescriptions for what governments, industry, and the financial sector can do to address the mounting threat of oil vega, before it's too late.

Kent Moors is Professor in the Department of Political Science and the Graduate Center for Social and Public Policy at Duquesne University, where he also directs the Energy Policy Research Group. An internationally recognized expert in oil and gas policy/finance and risk assessment, Kent is also President of the oil and gas consulting firm ASIDA, Inc., advising companies, financial institutions, law firms, and governments worldwide. He authors the Oil and Energy Investor, a twice-weekly advisory, the monthly Energy Advantage, and the investment alert service The Energy Inner Circle, and is a frequent contributor to Money Morning and contributing editor to the two leading post-Soviet oil and gas publications—Russian Petroleum Investor and Caspian Investor. Through an agreement with DeMatteo Monness, he provides specialized advisories to a broad range of Wall Street analysts, as well as investment, hedge fund, and capital and asset managers.

Chapter 1 The Meaning of Oil Vega.

Chapter 2 How Oil Volatility Relates to Strategic Risk.

Chapter 3 Determining Oil Prices.

Chapter 4 Dollars, Credit, Financial Crises,. . . and the Oil Connection.

Chapter 5 Oil Companies and the Upstream/Downstream Tradeoff.

Chapter 6 How Government Action Increases Volatility.

Chapter 7 Is There a Response?

Appendix A: World Proved Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels).

Appendix B:  Exxon CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix C: Exxon ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix D: Shell CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix E: Shell ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix F: BP CARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).

Appendix G: BP ARM per Gallon (January 3, 2000-December 31, 2007).


About the Author.